Nightingale Ice Cream:
Mind the Gap

Author

Group 4

Published

December 5, 2025

📝 Overview

This analysis provides a structured, data-driven approach to identifying and quantifying distribution shortfalls across the Nightingale Ice Cream portfolio within Kroger divisions. Using SPINS weekly sales data (1/19/2025–10/5/2025) and KeHE shipment data from the Ellettsville DC (1/1/2025–11/5/2025), the report isolates where distribution has previously been achieved, where it has fallen short, and the likely operational or supply-chain causes.

Because SPINS measures selling stores and KeHE measures ordering and fulfillment, the two systems do not align perfectly. For that reason, the most reliable performance anchor in this analysis is the Distribution Gap metric: the difference between the maximum proven distribution (Store Ceiling) and the actual weekly distribution. This allows us to quantify the store-weeks of lost availability and prioritize the items with the highest recoverable opportunity.

📦 Fill Rate Performance: The Supply Chain Diagnosis (KeHE data)

Goal: Determine whether distribution losses originate upstream (DC supply availability) or downstream (store-level execution).

This section summarizes KeHE fill rate performance by Area and Item. A low fill rate indicates that the DC shipped fewer cases than were ordered, which can signal supply constraints, ordering errors, or temporary out-of-stocks at the warehouse level.

Important Clarification:
A high fill rate generally rules out DC backlog as the primary cause of distribution loss, but it does not guarantee that: the DC always had inventory available throughout the week, stores ordered the correct quantities, or stores remained in stock long enough to generate SPINS sales.

Thus, Fill Rate is a directional diagnostic, not a complete confirmation of supply-chain health.

Products with consistently low fill rates—especially high-volume SKUs—should be prioritized for distributor coordination and replenishment planning before store-level corrective actions are pursued.

📈 Number of Stores Selling: Weekly Demand View (SPINS data)

Goal: Establish the highest level of verified selling distribution for each SKU in each market.

The Store Ceiling reflects the maximum number of stores that recorded a sale during the period. This metric tells us where the product has proven it can sell, regardless of current performance.

Key Notes: Store Ceiling represents maximum achieved selling distribution, not necessarily authorized space or full distribution potential. If current weekly distribution falls below this ceiling, the gap is potentially recoverable, assuming authorization and shelf placement have not changed. Items with high ceilings and low current distribution signal the strongest opportunity for near-term distribution recovery.

Use this chart to quickly surface SKUs that have demonstrated broad demand but are currently under-performing in weekly store count.

📉 Total Distribution Gap: Quantifying the Missed Opportunity (SPINS data)

Goal: Quantify the cumulative impact of distribution loss over time.

The Total Distribution Gap measures the number of store-weeks lost for each SKU:

(Max Stores – Actual Stores) aggregated across all weeks.

This does not represent dollar value directly, but it reflects the magnitude of availability loss. Higher gaps indicate sustained under-distribution relative to proven capability.

Important Clarification:
Because each store-week is weighted equally, this metric captures availability loss, not revenue loss. Velocity variation between stores is not reflected. Still, it is the most effective way to prioritize distribution recovery because it highlights chronic and widespread losses.

🎯 Individual Product Distribution Gap Analysis (SPINS data)

These visuals isolate the single most critical item in each market—the SKU with the highest Total Distribution Gap in the chart above—and track its weekly shortfall.

The gold section represents the number of stores that could have sold the product, but did not.

This view clarifies the pattern of failure:

Chronic gap: consistently low distribution vs. ceiling → likely systemic (planogram, ordering, replenishment). Acute gap: sudden drop then recovery → likely tied to a specific event (promo OOS, DC hiccup, reset window).

This step confirms whether the issue is ongoing or event-driven before remediation efforts begin.

🔍 Distribution Gap Detailed View (SPINS data)

Goal: Provide the auditable, filterable data behind all visuals for store-level or week-level investigation.

Each row reflects a single SKU-week and quantifies the exact shortfall in stores. This table allows teams to:

Validate patterns identified in the visuals
Investigate specific weeks with large gaps
Cross-reference with orders, resets, DC incidents, or merchandising changes

This tool is essential for root cause confirmation and should be used alongside the Fill Rate tables to determine whether the issue originates in supply or in-store execution.

🚀 Conclusion: Driving Distribution Recovery—The Strategic Mandate

Maximizing distribution requires a disciplined sequence of diagnostics grounded in proven performance. By anchoring on Store Ceiling, we establish what is demonstrably possible. From there, Total Distribution Gap quantifies the size of the prize, and Fill Rate/Weekly patterns help isolate whether supply constraints or in-store execution failures are driving the shortfall.

A two-step recovery process emerges:

  1. Prioritization & Confirmation

Target SKUs with the largest Total Distribution Gaps.

Validate whether supply issues exist using Fill Rate.

If supply is constrained, direct efforts upstream before intervening at store level.

  1. In-Depth Diagnosis & Validation

For SKUs with healthy supply, analyze weekly patterns to determine whether gaps are chronic or event-driven.

Use the detailed table to pinpoint exact weeks of failure and tie them to operational events, resets, or merchandising gaps.

Following this structured approach prevents misallocation of effort and allows the team to recover distribution efficiently, restore products to their proven ceilings, and unlock the full revenue potential in the market.